Theories about how 1923 will end deal less with the “how” than the “who.” We all know that Jacob Dutton is going to win this range war with Donald Whitfield, because five existing seasons of Yellowstone depend on it.

There was never a large “W” on the side of the bunkhouse. John Dutton (Kevin Costner) spoke with pride of his family owning the land for nearly 150 years.

Who lives, who dies and (most important) who survives to raise the next generation are what matter. In very simple terms, the show is a bridge from James Dutton (Tim McGraw in 1883) to Costner’s contemporary character. There have been twists and turns, but the space for meandering is closing.

I think I know who births and raises John Dutton Sr., as played by Dabney Coleman in Yellowstone. Unfortunately, the theory comes with a cost.

• Season 2 of 1923 premiered on Paramount+ on Sunday (Feb. 23).
• It’s the second Yellowstone franchise prequel, following 1883.
• It’s not clear if the show will continue past this season.

Spoilers are coming, so if you have not yet watched Season 2, Ep. 1 you may just want to bookmark the page and come back later. What follows is just a theory, but it’s a theory that finds a spot for several nagging timeline problems to rest.

Who Is John Dutton’s Grandfather?

I won’t go deep into the Dutton Family Tree here other than to say most people believe the next baby born will be John Dutton Sr., the character later played by Coleman. Two men could potentially father that child: Jack Dutton and his uncle, Spencer Dutton.

Jack’s father (Spencer’s brother) John Dutton died early in Season 1, and Jacob and Cara (Harrison Ford and Helen Mirren) have never had children. For awhile it looked like the young man was a good bet for this baby, because his wife, Elizabeth Strafford, was pregnant.

Related: I Totally Forgot This Crucial Detail From Season 1 of 1923

Sadly, she miscarried at the end of Season 1, and a popular theory is that the bullet she took to the abdomen is the reason. Elizabeth certainly doesn’t think she’ll be able to have kids, and that leads to a moving conversation between her and Jack that seemed likely to prop up their S2 storyline.

Spencer is married to Alexandra, but they were ripped apart at the end of last season. He continued to Montana, while she went back to England. However, during Season 2, Ep. 1, we learn that Alex is pregnant, and all of a sudden this couple seems like front-runners for the John Dutton baby daddy/mama sweepstakes.

There’s just one problem.

Does anyone watching this show actually think Spencer and Alex will get a happy ending? They’re tragic characters in the way Elsa and Sam were tragic characters in 1883 — there’s a certain Romeo & Juliet quality to their relationship, and we all know how that ended.

So, who then? If not Jack/Liz or Spencer/Alex, then who?

Both.

Imagine this scenario: Alex fights her way to Montana and reunites with Spencer. They enjoy a brief reunion before his war with Banner Creighton and Donald Whitfield begins in earnest. Ultimately he saves the family, but loses his life.

Because she is distraught (or because in 1920, it was common), Alex dies during childbirth and Jack and Elizabeth decide to adopt the baby, just like Jacob and Cara adopted their father and Spencer (John would also adopt Jamie in Yellowstone).

They name him John, after Jack’s father, thus explaining the generational skip in the name on the family tree. Many decades later, Costner’s John Dutton has a little girl and names her Beth, after his grandmother Elizabeth.

Suddenly, Jamie Dutton’s S5 Yellowstone declaration that his father John was a “5th generation” rancher makes sense. The “7 Generations Theory” also works out, as well. But most important, it vibes with how this series has historically gone.

Tragedy is normal. Satisfaction and contentment are merely dreams. Getting close to any of these characters is slightly less risky than becoming emotionally attached to the cattle they’re raising for market.

Too late.

I don’t hate this theory of how 1923 ends as a form of criticism. My ire is over how it’ll make me feel after the finale. Spencer and Alex are a gift and a symbol of pure love. Who wants to lose that?